Corn outlook for 2021

Ag Report

(USDA) – The U.S. season-average farm price of corn is raised to $4.00 per bushel—a 40 cent increase from the previous month’s projection. U.S. corn production in 2020/21 is lowered 215 million bushels in the November Crop Production report, to 14.507 billion bushels. Exports are raised 325 million bushels, based on higher foreign demand and lower foreign production. Feed and residual use is lowered 75 million bushels, offsetting some of the changes in production and exports. Ending stocks are projected to be 1.702 billion bushels—a 465 million bushel decrease from the previous month.

U.S. corn exports got an exceptional boost to a record-high 66.0 million tons. Two main developments, one on the supply side and one on the demand side, combined this month to generate that outcome. On the supply side, Ukrainian corn production and exports both plunged, creating a world export supply gap and enhancing U.S. corn export opportunities. On the demand side, Chinese corn imports increased substantially. As these two developments boost U.S. corn exports, a reduction of Ukrainian exports is fully offsetting, leaving global corn trade virtually unchanged.

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