In depth look at snow chances this weekend

Beyond The Forecast

Timing of Storm Systems

(WFRV) – It has been a rather mild and snow-less start to January with only 0.1″ of snow being measured in Green Bay. This stretch of quiet weather will soon come to an end as there will be a series of storm systems taking aim on the Great Lakes region.


A few systems will begin to impact the area beginning on Thursday as a push of much warmer air surges northward into Wisconsin. This will bring the possibility for a light mix of rain and snow to the area especially north of Green Bay during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Snow will eventually transition to rain showers the rest of the afternoon before the precipitation moves eastward. Any snow accumulations to the north will be very light.

Friday night – Saturday morning

Precipitation on the western edge of a larger storm system will move northeast Friday night into Saturday morning. On the western fringe of this precipitation there could be some snow showers that do fall especially to the southeast of Green Bay. This would include areas like Manitowoc, Sheboygan, and Fond du Lac. Accumulations with this round of snow look to remain minor.

Saturday night – Sunday morning

Greater uncertainty arrives in the forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning as there is the potential for another round of accumulating snow for portions of Northeast Wisconsin. Model guidance is split with regards to the track and placement of the snowfall for this system. Below is the area believed to hold the highest probability for snow accumulations during this time frame.

The highest threat for snowfall will exist across southeast Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and portions of lower Michigan. There is a fair amount of confidence with the timing of these systems as we head into the weekend. Uncertainty on the location of snow, especially the heaviest snow, still exists and it will be a few more days before that confidence begins to increase. Here is an example of the spread in snowfall solutions between three models as of Wednesday morning for this upcoming weekend.

Computer Model Guidance

European model
GFS (American) model
GFS Ensembel model

You can see by the guidance from the European model there would be widespread snow accumulations for areas generally south and east of Green Bay with lesser totals north and west. The GFS model keeps these systems well to our southeast into Illinois and Michigan. The GFS Ensemble splits the difference between those two models and does bring some accumulations into the area. Right now, it looks like the further northwest you are from Green Bay the lower snowfall totals you are likely to see.

What snow does fall should be out of the area early Sunday morning with generally dry conditions for the rest of the day including for the Packer playoff game at Lambeau Field.

Make sure to stay tuned to the latest forecasts and download the Storm Team 5 weather app for updated information.

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