Poll: Biden favored to win in Wisconsin, Michigan 20 days ahead of election

Election
Donald Trump

FILE – In this combination of file photos, former Vice President Joe Biden, left, speaks in Wilmington, Del., on March 12, 2020, and President Donald Trump speaks at the White House in Washington on April 5, 2020. Some of the country’s major sports betting companies are running contests in which participants predict things that will happen or be said during the presidential debate, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020, for the chance to win money. (AP Photo/File)

(WFRV) – Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is forecasted to win in Wisconsin and Michigan in November, according to the latest poll from FiveThirtyEight.

As of Tuesday, Oct. 13, 100 outcomes of the 40,000 simulated elections done by FiveThirtyEight, Biden won 88 times, well beyond President Donald Trump’s 12 wins.

Courtesy FiveThirtyEight | Oct. 14, 2020

Many of FiveThirtyEight’s simulations fall near a tie with only a handful showing Biden winning by more than 10 points.

When Trump does win, he wins by fewer than 10 points.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden has consistently garnered the largest greatest chance of winning, dipping slightly in late August.

Wisconsin, like Michigan, is among those states FiveThirtyEight considers to be on the tipping point between Biden and Trump.

In the latest from FiveThirtyEight, Biden is “clearly favored to win Michigan.” Out of the 100 sample outcomes from the 40,000 simulated, Biden won 91 of them, many by 10 points or more.

Courtesy FiveThirtyEight | Oct. 14, 2020

Like Wisconsin, when Trump wins in the simulated elections for Michigan, FiveThirtyEight reports he wins by fewer than 10 points.

Based on FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting, Biden has consistently held a 79% chance or higher in winning in Michigan. The popular vote shows a tighter race, with Biden having a 52% chance or higher of winning the popular vote.

Nationally, FiveThirtyEight shows Biden is favored to win the election. According to FiveThirtyEight’s sampled simulated elections, Biden won 87 times to Trump’s 13, often by about 200 electoral votes.

Forecasting for Wisconsin’s districts

On the local level, FiveThirtyEight forecasts Republican incumbent Congressman Mike Gallagher will beat out Democratic Representative Amanda Stuck in Wisconsin’s 8th District.

In the 6th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Congressman Glenn Grothman is also forecasted to win against his Democratic challenger, Jessica King.

In Michigan, Democratic incumbent Representative Haley Stevens is forecasted to win in the race for the House seat, according to FiveThirtyEight, beating out Eric Esshaki, 94-6.

In the Michigan Senate race, Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is favored over Republican John James by FiveThirtyEight.

With just 20 days left to election day, FiveThirtyEight says these predictions are likely to change.

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