Professor forecasts the likelihood of tornadoes 2-3 weeks in advance

Local News

A college professor says he has found a way to predict the likelihood of tornadoes two to three weeks in advance.

Victor Gensini is a meteorology professor for the College of DuPage in Illinois.

Gensini has been studying the weather for quite some time, but it was the severe season of 2011 that caught his interest. That year had a record amount of devastating tornadoes. But in 2012 and 2013, he noticed that those were years with record lows.

“We were really trying to answer why there is so much variability from year to year in any given month in tornado activity,” Gensini explained.

So, he started looking at patterns that favored tornado activity.

“We were like let’s try to push this. Let’s see what the driving factors are,” Gensini said.

And what he found were patterns in the jet stream. These patterns helped him and his team to determine where the tornadoes would form.

“This is the most useful to the emergency management communities that are starting to think about putting plans in place. The other flip side of this is insurance companies. They will have an increase in losses coming up in the next couple weeks,” Gensini says.

While these new forecasts will be helpful to these different organizations, they will not pinpoint an exact location for a tornado.

“No, this doesn’t mean you’re going to get your house destroyed, but this does mean you sort of need to keep a heads up in the next couple of weeks,” Gensini explains about his new forecasts.

To learn more about Gensini’s research, click here
 

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