Punxsutawney Phil vs Jimmy the groundhog. Who holds the edge?

Beyond The Forecast

(WFRV) – Jimmy the groundhog….and Punxsutawney Phil. The tradition is simple for these two groundhogs: if it sees its shadow on February 2nd, it means six more weeks of winter. If not, an early spring is expected.  

This morning, Phil predicted 6 more weeks of winter, and Jimmy went with an early spring.  

How do these two match-up when it comes to getting these predictions right? 

According to Stormfax Almanac, Phil is only 39% accurate with his predictions on a larger scale. Sun Prairie, WI often brags about the accuracy, but let’s look at the stats over the last 10 years specifically in Green Bay. 

To determine if a prediction is correct, I took the average temperatures from Feb 2 to March 16 (6 weeks). If temperatures were above average, then it can be considered an early spring. If temperatures were below normal, then it can be determined 6 more weeks of winter was accurate.

Prior to 2021, Jimmy saw his shadow 4 times in a row. With regards to his predictions, he was only right 50% of the time for Green Bay. 

Phil on the other hand, had a correct prediction in 2020. Overall, the accuracy for Green Bay has not been good. Under 50% in the last 10 years.  

While Jimmy the groundhog has been the pride of Wisconsin, people may remember the groundhog was released back in the wild 2015 after it bit the mayor. Since then, the groundhog has been replaced with a new Jimmy.  

For more Science Course with Ryan Morse, click below

Jimmy and Phil have made the same prediction in the same year 5 of the last 10 years, of those years they were right two times.

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