Weather is hard to predict, but March Madness is harder. What are the shocking odds of a perfect bracket?

Beyond The Forecast

(WFRV) – Predicting the weather is always a challenge. But, predicting a perfect March Madness bracket is far more challenging for the NCAA tournament. After a weekend full of upsets, there are no more perfect brackets in the CBS Sports Bracket Challenge. How hard is it to get a perfect bracket?

Let’s start with the basics, this is a four team bracket pictured behind me. There are two outcomes to your prediction right or wrong. Within in this bracket there are only 3 games. 2^(3) is 8 which is the number of different scenarios in this small bracket. 

Not counting the First Four in the NCAA tournament, there are 63 total games, 2^(63) will be the number of scenarios possible getting a perfect bracket when just flipping a coin for each match-up. 

This number comes out to 1 in about 9.2 quintillion chance of getting a perfect bracket 

Comparing this number to other statistics the figure is staggering. In terms of weather, lightning is always a danger, the odds of getting struck by lightning according to the NWS is 1 in 1.22 million in a given year.

This means you are just over 7.5 trillion times more likely to get hit by lightning than fill out a perfect bracket.

In other crazy odds, to win the Mega Millions lottery you have a 1 in 302 million chance (CNBC).

If you were to count to even just one quintillion it would take about 31,688,738,506.8 years.

For more Science Course with Ryan Morse, click below

Most staggering of all, according to NPR, earth has about 7.5 quintillion grains of sand on earth. That is still less than the number of bracket scenarios.

Of course, these odds can be decreased by not having a 16 seed or 15 seed become a champion. Even at this rate, it is still a one in over 120 billion shot of a perfect bracket.

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